it depends on what game you're playing...around here, most would solve the decision about whether to fold or call by just going all in!

)

Thanks Fuzzy : )

You had about 15-17 outs so yeh, the reward would be sweet if you'd hit.

I make it 15 clean outs. On a bet of $1,600 to win $2,220 that would give:

(-1,600 x 31/46)+(2,220 x 15/46) = -361

Assuming no further action on the river I would have an expected value of -$361. Not good pot odds.

Nanomoretto and I had about $40,000 in our stacks. If I had hit one of my outs I could reasonably expect more action on the river. And If I estimate that I could recover a minimum of over $361 if I hit on the river then the implied odds would suggest that I should have called.

I think I made a clear error in folding even though my immediate pot odds gave a -EV.

Any thoughts ?

If you both had $40,000 then you could have got a lot more out of him if you'd hit, so, yeh I would have called with that chip stack.

Just glad to see a 'real' ppl out here.. ;)

Ur analysis is rather good Jules, just my 5 cents :
1) even with "expectations" on river bet, u should fold "in real life".
2) on Gpokr, u should call, even raise.. :)

Your calculation on outs needs to take into account what hand you put Nano on. If he's been bluffing a lot then the outs you post might be right. If you think he's sat on a flush, at best you have 7 outs and possibly none if he holds the Ace.

So I'd say it comes down to your read of the player.