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Ryan - Can you check this out?
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Scalba wrote
at 10:03 PM, Wednesday April 16, 2008 EDT
Ryan,
I have enjoyed Gpokr for several months now and accordingly have donated and will likely donate again in the future as I think the money is generally put to good use. However, recently I have noticed that the flops seem a bit "funny" lately. For example last night at the One & Only table I recorded 25 flops in a row and noticed that six contained pairs while 16 contained at least two of the same suit if not three (may have also been connected). I'm not statistical expert, but this seems a bit strange. When I have played other cash sites, I have never noticed such a pattern. Now I am not one of these people bitching and moaning about how they lost or got screwed, but just wanted to see if this sounded funny to you. For the last several months I have strict zero refill policy as I want to test my skill, but when you have flops such as the ones I have seen it often favours a 2 9 suited over pocket aces as the flop is likely to give someone a full house or flush. So you end up getting punished with what all schools of thought would consider superior cards. Since this is a virtual world, you are really forced to play your cards more so than the player. That being said, it might be work checking to see if something is off with the algorithm or whatever is used to control the dealing of the cards. Thanks for the great site and hopefully your have some time to check into this. Regards, Scott |
Replies 1 - 6 of 6
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JulesDogg wrote
at 10:33 PM, Wednesday April 16, 2008 EDT The chance of any flop having 2 of the same suit is 55%, three the same suit is 6%.
Your small sample gives 64% of flops are 2 or 3 suited. Probability says the expectation is about 61%, that's pretty close, even for such a small sample size. |
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Scalba wrote
at 11:08 PM, Wednesday April 16, 2008 EDT Jules,
Thanks for the stats which are very interesting indeed. But does that mean the number of pairs I was seeing normal too? 24% of flops with pairs seems high. A flop of 7 7 2 just destroys pocket aces if some clown kept a 7 2 in their hand. If you have any stats on the flopped pairs, please let me know. Thanks! Scott |
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JulesDogg wrote
at 7:59 AM, Thursday April 17, 2008 EDT Scott, there are a lot of complaints about the randomness of the cards. Many others have said that they see an unusually high incidence of flushes and xxy flops.
In my opinion, the problem is that we all play for 'free' money'. For example; yesterday I played AA from the button, big blinds were $1000 and I raised the 7 limpers by 9 x the big blind. In a real game that would be an absurd raise (3 to 4 x BB would be normal in a cash game), but with gpokr's 'free' money I got 6 callers and my AA got busted by a 1 card flush. I had a tight image at the table but the raise meant nothing to players with cards that the salvation army would reject. That is the nature of gpokr and you have to adjust your play accordingly. I have done a quick calculation for the chance of an xxy/xyx/yxx flop and make it approximately 17.5% or about 1 in 6. As a non-statistician I cannot say that my method was spot on, but I reckon it's fairly close (any corrections very welcome). If you can be bothered doing the counting I would love to see data for about 2000 flops (lol), that would be a reasonable sample size (more would be better). Anyhow, it all just a bit of fun and I hope you enjoy your time in the site. |
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JulesDogg wrote
at 9:21 AM, Thursday April 17, 2008 EDT Scott, I have just found out that the probability of a pair on the flop is 16.9%.
If you (or others) are interested in the various probabilities and stats in the game there is a great article on wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_'em) |
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Scalba wrote
at 1:20 PM, Thursday April 17, 2008 EDT JulesDogg,
Thanks for taking the time to check this out. Very interesting indeed. I completely understand the "free" nature of Gpokr and have tried to adjust play accordingly. I have experienced the exact same thing you did many, many times, and actually lost everything last night in a somewhat similar situation (not a good night and I'll take a break till next month). I might see about getting a greater nubmer of flops in a sample and will post the results accordingly. Perhaps the site somehow needs to "reward" those will less refills, perhaps deducting refills from your month end totals, or creating areas for those more interesting in playing and testing skill rather than just playing another that comes up. Take care and best of luck. Scott |
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JulesDogg wrote
at 2:00 PM, Thursday April 17, 2008 EDT Scott, I really lke the idea of taking refills into account. A month end refill deduction or having a negative balance might reign in the maniacs.
Hope to see you back on the tables. |
