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Deal or No Deal and Expected Value (EV)
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Tristo wrote
at 10:47 PM, Sunday July 3, 2011 EDT
Most people probably know of a local variant of the TV game show 'Deal or No Deal':
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deal_or_No_Deal It's pretty lame IMHO but it is kinda interesting comparing the Dealer's Offers to the EV. Take this scenario from an old clip I found on youtube: Cases in play: $5 $50 $100 $7,500 $25,000 $200,000 SUM of these cases: $232,655 EV = SUM / 6 (NUMBER OF CASES LEFT) = $38,776 And the Dealer's offer: $20,650 So - Deal or No Deal? |
Replies 1 - 2 of 2
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Gurgi wrote
at 2:00 AM, Monday July 4, 2011 EDT id do deal since there is only a 16% chance of getting the 200$ and 66% chance of getting fucked with 8k or much less. 25k is like break even with it.
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Gurgi wrote
at 2:00 AM, Monday July 4, 2011 EDT 200$ = 200,000$ silly typo.
EDIT BUTTON? |