Implied Odds

Where pot odds take into consideration the money that's in the pot right now, implied odds is an estimation on how much money you CAN win from the bet if you hit one of your outs. For instance, with 100 in the pot, and a bet of 20, is your gain really only 100 if you win? Can you really not squeeze out an extra few bucks from your opponent if you hit your flush? You probably can - and so as the pot will get bigger, your implied odds go up.

A good example of when implied odds come into play is when you limp in with a small or medium pair before the flop in hold 'em. Your chance of hitting a set (which is typically the only way a small or medium pair will win) is around 7.5-1, which means that pot needs to have 6 or 7 other limpers to make it worthwhile. But, of course, that's presuming that everyone will fold if you hit your set, which is rarely the case. Let's say instead that you get four other limpers and your bets will narrow the field down by 50% on the flop, and another 50% on the turn - what are your implied odds?

Four limpers to the flop = 4 SB.
Two callers to the turn = 2 SB.
One caller to the river = 1BB = 2 SB.

Here, you stand to win 8 small bets, at the initial price of 1, which gives your call positive expectation. By this count, your implied odds are good to make this pre-flop call with a weak pair because of the money you'll figure to win if you do hit your set, rather than the amount you're "guaranteed" to win.

Here's the downside to implied odds though: They're an estimation, and as it so happens, people tend to be way too optimistic in calculating them.

For instance:
Kh 7d
On a board with:
Qh 9c 8h Ah

gives you 9 outs to a flush, which is a 4-1 shot. Now let's say that there were only two of you in the pot, one limper and you in the BB. Flop was checked around, and he bet at the turn after you checked, the pot would be about 2BB. You're paying 2-1 to see the last card, which could give you the nut flush - but do you call? Pot odds say no. Implied odds likely don't give you the numbers you're looking for either, but this is where people get overoptimistic!

If your opponent paired his ace and has no hearts, would he really bet into a four-suited board after the river? Would he call your bet? Probably not. You can hardly figure to win more than the money that's already in the pot at the turn, because if you make your hand on the river, he's not going to pay you enough. Even if he calls an extra bet on the river (maybe he has the Jh), you're still not getting good enough odds. At that point, your call on the turn will have cost you 1BB, and you're looking at a profit of 3BB, which gives you 3-1. You'll have to successfully check/raise him (and he has to call your check/raise) for it to be near profitable, and you have to succeed at that every time that you hit your flush. Hardly likely.

Another point to bear in mind is the stack size of your opponent, if someone is almost all in by the turn and you are getting poor odds to try to make your flush, are you going to get paid off if you do hit the card you need on the river? At this point you need to assess whether attempting to make the flush will be worthwhile. If your opponent is nearly out of chips it?s simply not worth chasing because you won?t get paid enough. On the other hand, if he has a deep stack and a loose aggressive nature then a call or check/raise would be very worthwhile when you do hit.

Mr Jules~How did you get sooooo HANDSOME, soooooo SMART and sooooooo FUNNY in just those few years you been around? xoxoxox :) Luv ya~~GPokr Style~of course!! hahaahahh

A 4 minute time bank would be useful if this is thread has any relevance to poker.

brock, I don't understand the last comment.

WHEN I PLAY GPOKR ITS ALL FOR IMPLIED ODDS FOR ME (THE AMOUNT I EXPECT TO GET IF I DO CATCH) CUS IM LOOKIN AT YOUR WHOLE STACK WHEN YOU MAKE A BET AND IF IM CHASING ON A CRAPPY DRAW OR ANYTHING I SAY TO MYSELF IF I CATCH HOW MUCH YOU GOT FOR ME TO TAKE FROM YOU AT THIS TABLE IS HOW I LOOK AT IT ON GPOKR AND I ALWAYS CHASE HIGHER HANDS AND EVEN BET THEM B4 THEY CONNECT TOO TO CONFUSE STRENGTH AND TRY TO CREATE A BLUFFING IMPRESSION ON THE RIVER BY A BIG BET BUT THE ODDS SEEM WAY OFF ON GPOKR ANYWAY POT ODDS IS A SYSTEM USED BY PROFESSIONALS TO MAKE $ OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AND IT IS JUST CALLING YOUR GOOD ODDS BUT SWITCHING UP YOUR PLAY IS GOOD TO DO AS WELL

12 OUTS ON THE FLOP IS A 50% CHANCE YOU WILL HIT CUS YOU HAVE 2 CARDS AND 3 ON FLOP LEAVES 48 NOT 46 THE 2 CARDS YOUR OPPONENT(S) HOLD ARE IRRELAVANT BECAUSE YOU CANT FACTOR IN INFORMATION YOU DONT HAVE SO THE ODDS EQUALED OUT OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME WOULD BE IN RELEVANCE TO THE REST OF THE DECK AND YOUR OPPONENTS CARDS CUS 1 TIME THEY MIGHT HAVE 2 OF YOUR OUTS AND THE NEXT NOT HAVE ANY AND THE #S SHOULD ALWAYS WORK THEMSELVES OUT 12 OUTS IS 12 IN 48 WITH 2 CARDS DRAWN 1 IN 2

OUT OF 47 I MEAN LOL 12 IN 47 ROUGHLY 1 TO 1

bump

I'd like to to comment on this but when I sit in, it's anything but poker so I lose the desire to say much except these are without doubt the worst players I've ever been around & you get nothing but bad habits on here. GL Jules you'll need it on here.

Cotton, I agree. Playing here probably has the effect of training you to play worse not better. I've been playing low buy in 90 player sit n go, a few 6 player sng and the odd large mtt.

A few $$$s makes the standard of play a lot better. Still get a few maniacs but not a whole table of em like here.